Fall Colors Progress in the Mono Basin Area

I think you are roughly correct in your ideas about the timing, though clearly there are all kinds of annual variations. In general, I find that most of my best stuff seems to come during roughly the second full week of October, extending just bit on either side of that.

The variations are interesting and tricky to learn. Some of the variations are pretty clear. For examples, higher elevations tend to change earlier. (And in some years you might be too late for a few of them if you arrive on that one-week-into-October schedule!) You can work your way down from the highest trailheads (or even further up if you are willing to hike) in early October and find great color during the middle of the month or even a bit later sometimes right down into the lowlands.

There are also some north to south variations, but these are a bit tricky and often seem to be over-ridden by the elevation differences, local variations, and even the patterns of winter snow. For example, a few odd little spots - such as high along the road to Virginia Lakes - seem to turn earlier that other nearby areas that are otherwise similar. And certain more protected areas - like Lee Vining Canyon and similar - often come into color quite a bit later.

I've been trying to understand this for some years now. At first I thought that I could uncovered some basic logic to it and make things more predictable. I'd say that I've had _partial_ success, but I've been surprised often enough that I'm more humble about actually quantifying everthing.

Good luck!

Dan